Indonesia in Agony
With the economy in shambles and a police force incapable of slowing rampant violence and corruption, embattled Indonesian president Abdurrahman Wahid is under pressure to quit as the country struggles with its new democracy.
JAKARTA, Indonesia July 23, 2000 -- The creation of a democracy, amid all the good and the glory, is not easy nor quick nor painless.
In the American experience, the adoption of our Constitution was preceded by 25 years of fits and starts, then succeeded by almost two centuries of fundamental fixes -- among them the Bill of Rights, the abolition of slavery, enfranchisement beyond landed white males.
Remember that it was not until the 20th century that a majority of Americans even could vote.
So the agony of Indonesia may be seen as natural, perhaps even necessary.
This nation, the fourth most populous in the world, is struggling to create a unified, functioning democracy for a diverse archipelago of more than 13,000 islands across 3,200 miles, among 216 million people who live, often primitively, in innumerable local cultures and speak perhaps 300 languages.
Why should Americans care about such a country on the opposite side of the globe? U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Gelbard talks about the strategic military and political importance of Indonesia in Southeast Asia and about economic opportunities, but mostly he talks about the historic implications of a democratic Indonesia.
As the third-largest democratic nation in the world, Gelbard points out, Indonesia would demonstrate that democracy can work in Islam, the world's second-largest religion. ''We believe,'' he emphasized to our delegation of editors, ''in democracy.''
But this summer, it seems so remote.
A fragile government, trying to function through an incompetent bureaucracy within an ambiguous constitutional framework, is confronting: a shattered economy, provincial violence and rebellion, an emasculated military, pervasive corruption, impotent law enforcement and a profound lack of public trust -- and, through it all, inflated expectations.
In the middle of this maelstrom is President Abdurrahman Wahid, an all-but-blind and infirm Islamic cleric and intellectual given to wild statements and erratic behavior.
''There is the trouble we're having with this leader of ours,'' said Jusuf Wanandi, chairman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta. ''He has not shown his capability to govern.''
His own defense minister, Juwono Sudarsono, told us Wahid ''cannot provide effective leadership'' because of his poor eyesight.
From far away, on Bali, Katut, a minor education official, said Wahid is ''not strong enough for thinking about a big country.''
But no one, including U.S. officials privately, offers a viable alternative in the near term.
The next month or so is likely to be crucial to the future of Indonesia, as national corruption cases are brought to trial or not, as terrible ethnic violence comes to a head and as the powerful People's Consultative Assembly passes judgment on Wahid's first year in office.
This is a time crucial to the future of Indonesia and the germination of its democracy so full of promise.
A new nation
Modern Indonesia is only a half-century old, emerging after World War II when a nationalist movement led by Sukarno (many Indonesians have only one formal name) ended more than 300 years of Dutch and, during the war, Japanese occupation.
The eras of Sukarno, 1945-66, and his successor, Suharto, 1967-98, were defined by repression, political intrigue and, finally, at their conclusions, economic crises.
After 18 months of interim rule by B.J. Habibie, a Suharto deputy, the People's Consultative Assembly turned last October to Wahid as a compromise president. Officially, Gus Dur, as he is popularly known, has a five-year term, but critics are pointing out that the assembly that elected him might also be able to remove him, perhaps at an annual performance review, the first one in August.
Meanwhile, Indonesia has tasted real democracy, and is demanding more. Habibie whetted the appetite by freeing the press, political parties and labor unions. Under Wahid, the once-repressive army has been defanged and pushed out of politics, and democratic institutions have begun to be strengthened.
Emergencies everywhere
But a remarkable array of crises is threatening to swamp the Wahid administration before it can achieve traction. The palace is on ''sensory overload'' without the capacity to handle it, as one high U.S. official put it off the record.
Provincial violence: While East Timor struggles to recover from its bloody liberation from Indonesian rule last year, Wahid is facing other active separatist movements, notably in Irian Jaya and Aceh. Even more pressing, escalating violence between Muslims and Christians in the Maluku islands has resulted in the deaths of thousands of people, with no end in sight.
Wahid told us the national government is powerless to intervene: ''I've taken the policy of government is powerless to intervene: ''I've taken the policy of waiting, because we're outnumbered. There are so many islands, we do not have enough policemen.''
In our interview, he said the Maluku violence is being fueled by Muslim outsiders from Java, ''tools'' of radical interests, and promised to arrest any still there after July 15. ''So in a few weeks, we'll be back to normal.''
But Keith Richburg, a veteran Washington Post correspondent here, warned us to check with others on that promise, given Wahid's propensity for wild, meaningless statements. This past week, in fact, the army admitted that some of its troops there have taken sides, exacerbating the situation rather than making arrests.
Amien Rais, speaker of the Assembly and Wahid's leading critic, said the situation is ''almost out of control.''
He listed territorial integrity as ''our most worrying problem. If (Irian Jaya and Aceh) separate, our republic will crumble into oblivion.''
Most people doubt that. UW-Madison scholar Donald K. Emmerson, a highly regarded expert on Indonesia, wrote recently in the journal Foreign Affairs: ''The geographic and cultural patchwork of Indonesia may shrink, but it is not about to unravel.''
Still, Rais observed, ''The farther you are from Jakarta, the less secure your life.''
The military and the police: Throughout Indonesia's history, the army has seen itself as having both military and social-political roles, and powerful ones at that. It was the foundation of the strength of both Sukarno and Suharto, the latter a general.
One of the most important democratic reforms begun under Habibie was the separation of the army from politics and civilian control of the military, with the resulting loss of much of its power.
At the same time, government commissions are investigating the role of the army in massacres in both East Timor and Jakarta itself. Gen. Wiranto, the head of the military, was forced out in May.
Defense Minister Sudarsono said the army has been ''immobilized politically'' and has become ''undermanned, underequipped, most of them underpaid, poorly trained.'' He said the military resists becoming involved in sectarian violence and rebellion because officers are afraid they will be called to account.
''They really don't know how to operate in the new Indonesia,'' scholar Douglas Ramage of the Asia Foundation said. He added that the military is so discredited that any worry about a coup ''makes no sense. Indonesians just scratch their heads.''
Meanwhile, this month, Wahid officially separated the national police from the Ministry of Defense and put it under his direct control, effective in January. American officials in Indonesia express frustration at prying loose from Washington money for training a new democratic police force, as opposed to what one referred to as ''snipers.''
But the new police force also faces obstacles. ''People don't understand democracy,'' Ramage said. ''If the police were corrupt, then democracy means you don't have to pay them attention, so crime rises. People think democracy means one can do whatever one wants.''
So 30 members of a radical Islamic group feel free to violently attack the National Commission on Human Rights in the middle of the day in Jakarta, in front of powerless police. Violence, the group's leader told us later, is acceptable if it is the only way to fight alcohol, prostitution and gambling.
Because police are so ineffective and untrusted, communities police themselves. One village night-watchman told me that, when he spies a suspicious person, he bangs on a light post to rouse neighbors. In just the past few months, an estimated 90 suspected criminals have been summarily executed by vigilante mobs.
The economy: Three years ago, a writer for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore called Indonesia ''one of the most remarkable development success stories in the last third of the 20th century.'' By the end of 1998, however, the Asian economic crisis had devastated the country, including the Suharto regime. Economic output plunged, millions became unemployed, bankruptcies abounded, investors fled with their money and the rupiah became the world's worst-performing currency of 2000.
A senior American official said foreign investment is ''dead.....frozen.... There is a total lack of an investment climate.''
Jakarta's downtown skyline is littered with apparently closed office buildings, some stopped in mid-construction. Even the tourist industry is suffering, as foreign tour operators cancel packages, citing the social and economic unrest.
Tobing, who works on the Sunda Kelapa schooner dock as a sort of broker for the hardwoods being unloaded from Borneo, said he could make 50,000 to 60,000 rupiah a day several years ago, but now has to support his wife and two children on about 30,000 -- less than $ 4.
Wanandi, of the think tank CSIS, is not optimistic about the near future. There has been no basic restructuring, he said, and Wahid's is ''a team so bad you cannot believe it.''
Critics say Wahid is distracted from the economy by having to deal with so many other problems, and in turn, those problems fuel the lack of confidence that is undercutting any economic turnaround.
Corruption: Indonesia is among the most corrupt countries in the world. In fact, Indonesians even have a common acronym -- KKN -- for corruption, collusion and nepotism. Some estimates are that 20 percent of GDP is lost to KKN.
It begins at the highest levels. Suharto has been charged with corruption and abuse of power, with having stolen billions of dollars from the country, and the allegations flow through his family and associates.
On the day we interviewed Attorney General Marzuki Darusman, he had just arrested the governor of the central bank on corruption charges and clapped him into a cell elsewhere in the building.
And Wahid himself has come under suspicion, when his personal masseur allegedly used the president's authority to embezzle $ 4.7 million from a government food agency.
''I smell a rat from the palace,'' said opposition-leader Rais. ''Suharto needed 10 years to build the trees of corruption; Mr. Gus Dur needed only 10 weeks.''
But KKN is deeply enmeshed in the Indonesian culture, from the airport official who tried to trick me and another editor into paying twice for overweight luggage to the local policeman in Bali whom I saw accepting a petty bribe from a bamboo poacher.
'It's a culture,'' said Mohammad Syafii, a village chief in the working-class Senen area of Jakarta. ''Very hard to get rid of.''
''It's true,'' acknowledged President Wahid. ''It's a fact.''
So much rides on whether the highest-level cases are prosecuted, that is, whether the government has the gumption and whether the corrupt courts can function impartially.
Attorney General Marzuki, who is widely respected, told us that, if the government is to have any credibility, the public must ''perceive'' that the ailing, 78-year-old Suharto can be put on trial. ''We believe we have a very strong case of abuse of power.'' At the same time, the government is negotiating with the Suharto family to return billions of dollars in exchange for clemency.
Marzuki said his agency, like all of Indonesian government, suffers from a fundamental lack of competence, restricting his ability to investigate and prosecute KKN. He has been quoted as saying that, of his office's 60 prosecutors, only five are clean and competent.
''We're basically on track on our initial efforts to restore confidence in the legal system,'' he said, but it will take five to 10 years to build a ''reasonably running system.''
Like some of the other crises, this one likely will come to a head in August, when decisions should be made about the biggest KKN cases.
Priorities
As Wahid tries to navigate Indonesia through this ordeal, this crucial test of nationhood, what should be the first priority?
The wide range of government leaders, scholars and ordinary people interviewed all have firm -- and widely varied -- opinions.
''Territorial integrity,'' scholar Ramage said, ''because it's most important to Indonesians, a deeply held emotional issue.''
The economy, said Mohammad Syafii, the village chief, adding that his people's only contacts with the government are the discount on rice and noodles for the poor and some health care for children under 5.
Justice, a top American official said. ''People need confidence. And the economy.''
''Public trust,'' offered Attorney General Marzuki. ''The next two to three months are a critical period.''
Morality, said the radical Islamic leader Muhammad Rizieq Syihab as he sat cross-legged on a Persian rug on his porch. ''Indonesia is not (officially) a Muslim state, but it is also not a satanic state.''
Corruption, said Tobing, the dockworker whose income has plunged in the economic crisis.
''Leadership. Number one. Leadership,'' said Wanandi of the think-tank CSIS. ''Gus Dur is a good friend, but he's not providing it.''
Competency, suggested Defense Minister Sudarsono. ''Delivery. Consistency and follow-through. We are good in movements, but lousy in organization.''
Wahid himself seemed to agree, offering that his top priority is to show the people we're ''doing something.'' He pointed out he's been in office less than a year, and ''it's not easy to convince 209 million people we mean business.''
As daunting as the crises and priorities are, the mood this summer in Indonesia is remarkably laden with great expectations, and even optimism.
''It's clear that democracy is entrenching itself,'' Attorney General Marzuki said. ''It's an emerging effective government with a clear democratic mandate.''
Even the radical Islamic leader, Syihab, believes his group's vision for Indonesia is reasonable: ''We don't ask for much, Indonesia to be a peaceful, prosperous, harmonious country that upholds the values of Eastern culture.''
At the Sunda Kelapa dock, as he stood on one of the traditional wooden freighters, Tobing was hopeful. He sees signs of recovery: At the worst of the economy, there might have been only three schooners unloading, and now there are dozens.
Tobing thinks Wahid will need ''maybe five years'' to make reasonable progress. ''It's not easy,'' he said, holding outhis palm, ''not like open your hand.'' More news and information on Indonesia:
Books
''A Nation in Waiting,'' by Adam Schwarz (Second edition; Westview, 2000, $75 hardcover, $ 28 paperback). An excellent and deep analysis of the history, status and future of Indonesia, by a former journalist based in Jakarta for the Far Eastern Economic Review. Second edition adds two new chapters covering the fall of Suharto.
''Indonesia Beyond Suharto,'' edited by Donald K. Emmerson, (M.E. Sharpe, 1999, $ 69.95 hardcover, $ 26.95 paperback). A collection of scholarly essays edited by the UW-Madison professor of political science, a respected expert on Indonesia. On the Internetwww.Asiaweek.com News and features from CNN and Time and Asiaweek magazines.
www.feer.com The Far Eastern Economic Review magazine online.
www.atimes.com Reprints of stories about Asia.
www.thejakartapost.com Online version of a major English-language daily newspaper in Jakarta. Abdurrahman Wahid, President of Indonesia
Notes
*Born: Aug. 4, 1940 in East Java, Indonesia.
*Education: Al-Azhar University in Egypt and the Islamic University of Baghdad.
*Family: Married to Siti Nuriyah, with whom he has four daughters.
*Health: Poor. Two strokes, the latter in January 1998. Suffers from diabetes. Blind in one eye and only about 20 percent vision in the other.
*Bio: As the son and grandson of respected Muslim scholars, the young Wahid was given the honorific ''Gus,'' and adding a contraction of his first name, today he is commonly referred to as Gus Dur. His original power base was the Nahdlatul Ulama, the 30-million-member Muslim organization his grandfather founded and he once led. He often uses humor, sometimes off-color, to disarm conversations. Though he was not the top vote-getter in popular elections, he was named president by the People's Consultative Assembly as a compromise in October 1999. Wahid faces a critical performance review, and possible impeachment, when he delivers his state-of-the nation speech to the Assembly Aug. 7.