Election in Nigeria has US ramifications
Hopes are for first peaceful handover
ABUJA, Nigeria -- President Olusegun Obasanjo is clear about his plans after finishing his second term and overseeing the national election in April: He will retire to the pastoral life of a gentleman chicken farmer.
But many in this chaotic West African nation of 132 million are not so confident that Obasanjo will fade quietly from the scene. They worry that the 69-year-old leader might seize upon any voting irregularities, on the rising strife in the volatile Niger Delta region, or on the risk of religious and ethnic clashes as a pretext to declare a state of emergency and cling to power.
After all, Nigeria has been down that road before, lurching from coup to counter-coup for decades. Obasanjo himself served as the military ruler from 1976-1979 before handing power to a civilian president. Then, in 1999, he was elected for the first of his two terms, but critics say he has ruled as an autocrat who has failed to deliver on promises of far-reaching reforms.
On the eve of Obasanjo's scheduled departure, democracy is facing a crucial test in Nigeria, Africa's most-populous country and its largest oil producer. If he hands power to an elected successor, it will be the first such peaceful, constitutional transfer of power from one civilian government to another since Nigeria gained independence from Britain in 1960.
The stakes in the April 19 presidential election are high not just for Africa but also for the United States, which relies on Nigeria for about 14 percent of its energy resources and is expected to seek more as it tries to reduce its dependence on the Middle East.
"What we have is a president who thinks he's a messiah, and his basic belief is that he has all the solutions," Jibrin Ibrahim, director of the Center for Democracy and Development, a nongovernmental organization based in the Nigerian capital, told a group of visiting US editors. "But he has done his time and must now move on."
Questions about the president's intentions have deepened since lawmakers rebuffed his attempt last spring to amend the constitution to allow him to seek a third term. In recent weeks, the president has insisted the election would take place as scheduled and that he would honor the results.
"By the 29th of May, I'll be back on the farm," he said, referring to the constitutional deadline for him to leave office.
But from the dusty streets of Kano, a regional capital in the predominantly Muslim north, to the steamy coastal city of Lagos, Nigerians are questioning that pledge and how the nation would respond if the president refuses to budge. Some predict massive street protests and even violence.
One worry is that divisions in a country split roughly into the Muslim north and mainly Christian south, and among such ethnic groups as the Yoruba, Hausa, and Ibo, will boil over. Festus Okoye, a lawyer in Kaduna, the northern city that saw deadly clashes between Muslims and Christians in 2002 over a beauty contest held there, said he could not rule out election-related violence if Nigerians believe their will at the polls has been ignored.
"If political candidates and parties cannot respect their own constitution, they will have no respect among the people," said Okoye, who heads the group Human Rights Monitor whose office displays a picture of Rosa Parks as a reminder, he says, that an individual can make a difference.
Western diplomats here credit Obasanjo with beginning to tackle the massive government corruption that has siphoned off billions in oil revenues and landed Nigeria on watchdogs' lists of most-corrupt nations.
He established the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission in 2003, and its investigations have led to the jailing and ouster of two Cabinet ministers, several state governors, and the national police chief, and to a crackdown on notorious Internet scammers. Although critics accuse the agency of only going after Obasanjo's opponents, they concede that the fact that it even exists is a historic advance for Nigeria.
Obasanjo also strengthened Nigeria's role as a regional leader, working to resolve conflicts in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Sudan. On the economic front, Nigeria last year became the first African country to pay off it debts -- about $30 billion -- to the Paris Club, an informal group of creditor nations.
But Obasanjo (pronounced o-BAS-in-jo) has faced criticism over a host of daunting problems that are resonating during the campaign, foremost the growing uprising in the Niger Delta in southeastern Nigeria, the center of the country's petroleum production since oil was found there in 1956.
Militants demanding a greater share of oil profits for the region have stepped up kidnappings of foreign workers and attacks on pumping stations. The unrest has cut Nigeria's oil production by nearly one-quarter and rattled international markets. The militants have warned they will increase the attacks as the election nears.
Activists say oil operations in the vast region of creeks and swamps have harmed the environment and forced fishermen to look elsewhere to make a living. Residents there lag behind other parts of the country in access to education, health care, and jobs despite sitting atop such a bounty.
Obasanjo conceded that federal and state governments, as well as the oil companies, all bear responsibility for the conditions that spawned the violence and for the plight of the delta villagers.
"We should not continue to pass the buck," Obasanjo, dressed in a blue traditional agbada tunic and hat, told visiting editors. "The truth is, everybody is to blame. And to solve this, we need all hands on deck."
He said he believes the government must boost social programs to alleviate the suffering of delta villagers but also widen the military's campaign against what he called "pure criminality."
Meanwhile, the main candidates seeking to replace Obasanjo have hit the campaign trail. They are: Umaru Yar'Adua, the nominee from the ruling People's Democratic Party; Obasanjo's vice president and former supporter Atiku Abubakar; and Muhammadu Buhari, a former military dictator. All are Muslims from northern Nigeria.
A feud between Obasanjo and Atiku, known to Nigerians by his first name, has brought allegations of corruption from both men, trumpeted daily in the country's scrappy national newspapers. They have not spoken in three months, Atiku said.
The anti-graft commission has accused Atiku of diverting millions from a petroleum-development fund to his personal accounts. US authorities are also investigating whether US Representative William Jefferson, a Louisiana Democrat, bribed Atiku to help secure a telecommunications contract in Nigeria; FBI agents said they found $90,000 stashed in Jefferson's home freezer in 2005.
The vice president denies the allegations, although he sees an advantage in the publicity. "In fact, it has even enhanced my chances because people see that there is clear political victimization of me," he told the editors.
At a voter-registration station near the teeming, windswept Garki market in Abuja, enthusiasm about the upcoming election mixed with concerns about potential election violence. Sani Hamza, 32, watched intently as electronic machines recorded voters' images and thumb prints on identification cards.
"There have been problems and confusion with registering," with some people simply giving up, said Hamza. "But in the end, we hope -- we believe -- that we will make it through this."