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Sunni-Shi’ite Quarrels Could Haunt Middle East for Years, Says Lebanese Analyst
| Paul Salem |
WASHINGTON, February 7, 2007 — For journalists and academics, sectarian violence in the Middle East is a current preoccupation, and with good reason, warns Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Lebanon. Salem addressed an intimate group of SAIS students and IRP fellows and discussed, "the war of the roses in the Middle East," his term for Sunni vs. Shiite violence that could rage on for decades. Reminding his audience that Sunni/Shiite sectarian strife had been largely dormant for nearly five centuries, Salem cautioned that the Iraq War is stirring sectarian tensions so vigorously in Iraq that they have the potential to boil over into neighboring Arab states like Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
Salem also analyzed the failure of democratization in the Arab world. "The US has in the back of its mind the World War II and Cold War Experience," he said, where the US wages war against an evil dictator and by removing him, society naturally replaces authoritarian rule with democracy. Salem is adamant that this method won't work in the Middle East. He says authoritarianism has taken deep root in Arab societies and will not be easily replaced by democratic systems. National identities are still weak, and sectarian, tribal and family ties remain dangerously strong. The example of Iraq, and before that Lebanon, made many Arabs wary of democracy, fearing that societies would quickly disintegrate into chaos and civil war. According to Salem, the West’s policy approach should not be destroying states and expecting democracy to flourish in its wake. Instead, the West – and the US -- should help maintain security and stability, while taking a “gradual and phased approach” to pushing for democracy within existing states.
Visiting from his home in Lebanon, Salem reports that while Hezbollah still enjoys overwhelming support within its own Shiite community, it has lost considerable support from other communities. The Lebanese had seen Hezbollah as the defenders of Lebanon against Israel, he says, but that identity has suffered because Hezbollah, in recent months, has turned its political power against the Lebanese government
Salem painted a grim future for the Middle East involving the risk of decades of sectarian violence and the potential collapse of the Lebanese government if the US doesn't re-evaluate its foreign policy towards the region. .He supports the Iraq Study Group's recommendations and says the US government should follow the Baker/Hamilton report's recommendations and talk to both Iran and Syria about the future of the region.
Copyright © 2007 International Reporting Project. All Rights Reserved.