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Iraq on the Verge of Becoming a Nuclear Threat, Iraq Expert Says
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Amatzia Baram tells IRP Fellows that should the U.S. invade Iraq, Saddam Hussein might turn his sights on Israel. |
Washington - September 25, 2002. Iraq is on the verge of becoming a nuclear threat unless the global community takes action, an Iraq expert said today.
Speaking at a IRP Fellows seminar at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Haifa University Professor Amatzia Baram said if the United States doesn't attack Iraq today, Saddam Hussein will transform the country into a nuclear power within two to five years. At that point, Baram said, "I really don't know what you do about him. He will become the master of the Gulf, he will become the leader of the Arab world, there will be a nuclear war in the Middle East, and it may even reach New York."
Baram said this doomsday scenario is just one of many grim outcomes that could arise from a failure to take actions against Iraq. But he added that the possible outcomes of a U.S.-led invasion could be just as bad.
Baram predicted an invasion of Iraq would prompt the Iraqi leader to use his own people as human shields to force the United States to inflict heavy civilian casualties. He will also employ urban warfare with as many as 40,000 loyal troops. Iraqi officials have said they will "turn the streets of Baghdad into the Vietnamese jungle," according to Baram.
Hussein has ordered his military commanders to launch an arsenal of chemical and biological weapons in the direction of Israel should invading US forces gain the upper hand, said Baram, citing interviews he has had with former Iraqi generals. Hussein's motive would be to draw an Israeli nuclear counter-strike, says Baram, who has studied the Iraqi leader for over 20 years. Calling it the "Samson option," Baram said "Hussein is thinking: 'If I don't have Baghdad, nobody has it.'"
Israel would be unlikely to respond with a nuclear strike, said Baram, though it would retaliate harshly against the Iraqi regime. Israel has already taken action to minimize the fallout of a biological or chemical weapons attack. According to Baram, Israel has spent close to US$50 million to inoculate 15,000 military and health care personnel for anthrax and the bubonic plague to prepare for this scenario. In addition, said Baram, Israel has developed the Arrow missile to intercept any SCUD missile attacks.
While Bush administration officials have not been able to tie Iraq conclusively to the September 11th attacks, Hussein has worked hard at molding his image within Iraq as a leader who seeks, and gets, revenge. In fact, said Baram, Hussein has stopped just short of taking responsibility for the attacks to make this point. "He intends for the Iraqis to know he did it, because he needs to show them he takes revenge even against the great American superpower," said Baram.
Baram said Hussein, long-regarded for his secular stance on Islam, has recently narrowed the gap between his beliefs and those of Islamic fundamentalists to suggest that he is playing a part in Al-Qaeda's efforts around the world. "His speeches and the number of laws he's imposed recently on Iraq are really Islamic," said Baram. "When he opens his mouth, he often sounds like a Friday mosque preacher."
Copyright © 2005 International Reporting Project. All Rights Reserved.