Stability Improving in Southeast Asia Despite Terrorism, Corruption, and the Impact of the Tsunami
WASHINGTON, February 22, 2005 — Recent elections in several Southeast Asian countries have signaled a new period of greater stability in the region, Karl Jackson, an Asia foreign policy expert, told a group of International Reporting Project (IRP) Fellows today.
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Jackson said that the current leaders of the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia appear to be more serious about strengthening democracy and tackling the threats of terrorism and corruption than were their predecessors. He warned, however, that weak institutions could hamper long-term progress in transparent governance particularly in some tsunami-affected countries where there has been a history of cronyism.
"The only way to resolve corruption in Southeast Asia is when patrons get replaced by a social safety net," explained Jackson, a professor of Southeast Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Governments in the region must change their values so that a strong leadership, coupled with modern education, will help erode the culture of patronage, he added.
Jackson cited Indonesia as one country that is beginning to emerge from the shadow of dictatorship. In October 2004, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won the second and final round of presidential elections with a mandate to fight corruption and contain militant Islamic organizations.
Indonesia's new president will have a difficult task ahead given the legacy of former strongman Suharto's disastrous economic policies. Jackson said that patron-client relationships that served the interests of Suharto, his relatives and a handful of other Indonesian families left the economy in ruins and made it vulnerable to shocks like the 1997 fiscal crisis. The massive devaluation of the country's currency and a rapid spike in unemployment triggered a period of urban rioting in 1998 in which up to 1,000 people were killed. After Suharto was pressured to step down later that same year, sectarian violence between Muslims and Christians broke out on the island of Sulawesi.
The aftermath of Suharto's fall from power could have been worse, Jackson admitted. "It was staggering what happened. Indonesia didn't fall apart and break into six or seven states, and low and behold, has undergone a genuine political revolution." He also said that the overall condition of Islam remains one of moderation despite the publicity around the Bali bombings and other acts of violence perpetrated by a small minority of Muslim extremists.
A string of succeeding leaders, beginning with Bucharuddin Jusuf Habibie, did not, however, address the persistent lack of transparency. Jackson pointed out that while former presidents Aburrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid and Megawati Sukarnoputri were both admired as individuals, they were grossly incompetent as leaders of the largest Muslim nation in the world. He argued that Megawati, the daughter of Indonesia's first president Sukarno, spent more time performing ceremonial functions as president then making sound policy decisions that would turn around a sputtering economy and confront the twin problems of terrorism and corruption.
Jackson, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, commented that other heads of state in the region face similar problems. Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who replaced Mahathir Mohamad as Malaysia's prime minister late last year, knows that he must transform the country's banking system. Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who was re-elected for a second term in May 2004, needs to find ways to pay off the country's foreign debt by raising domestic revenue through taxation. Corruption and questionable banking practices are also serious impediments to growth in the Philippines, Jackson said.
Although Thailand boasts one of the cleanest and fastest growing economies in Asia, Jackson believes that its comparative success could also be tenuous. Thaksin Shinawatra was just re-elected as prime minister of Thailand earlier this month. However, he has made a series of authoritarian-style decisions while battling a growing insurgency in the southern part of the country. For now, Jackson feels that the monarchy may be the only force that can keep Thaksin's power in check.
Jackson further argued that the tsunami recovery effort may be an important litmus test for anti-corruption efforts in Thailand and Indonesia, two of the most severely-affected countries in the region. While Thailand rejected most forms of overseas foreign disaster aid, Indonesia's President Yudhoyono accepted hundreds of millions of dollars from various governments and international organizations. He also allowed the United States' military to help distribute relief items in the most devastated province of Aceh, a decision that may lead to a regularization of US-Indonesia military relationships, said Jackson.
Jackson suggested that given the history of cronyism in both countries, there is a possibility of "blowback" occurring in parts of Southeast Asia that accepted post tsunami aid. "There will be far too much money chasing far too few projects," he said.
He added that without systems of accountability in place, large chunks of cash might get diverted into the wrong places and stir up domestic resentment against the government in areas such as Aceh where a protracted separatist movement initially evolved out of the local population's dissatisfaction with the state.
"Greed might overcome the need for violence in Aceh," said Jackson.
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